Canada Gas Bottomed in June, Then Turned Up — July 2026 Report

Canada's pump-price slide found its floor — and started walking back up it. As of July 10, 2026, the average price of regular across the 78 Costco gas bars we track in Canada is 158.3¢ a litre — down just 2.3¢, or 1.4%, from 160.6¢ a month ago. That small net number hides a full round trip: regular bottomed at 152.4¢ on June 20 and has climbed nearly 6¢ in the three weeks since, with the sharpest jump in the final two days. Diesel is the exception that kept falling, down 14.5¢ (−8.0%) to 167.1¢. The turn matches what we found in the U.S., the UK, and Australia this month — and the biggest twist is regional: June's champion fallers have become July's biggest risers.

National averages of posted prices at tracked Costco gas bars in Canada, ¢/L. Snapshot taken July 10, 2026 — this article is not updated.

A V-shaped month: down to June 20, up ever since

The national average fell cleanly through mid-June — a 2.2¢ drop on June 19 was the steepest day — to a low of 152.4¢ on June 20, its cheapest reading of the spring. That was the bottom. From June 21 prices ratcheted back up, first in a jagged plateau near 154¢ and then decisively over July 8–10, adding more than 3¢ in the final two days to close the window at 158.3¢. In other words, the July snapshot catches Canadian pumps on the way back up, not down.

The Prairies flipped from biggest faller to biggest riser

Last month's report found Manitoba leading the whole country lower, down 23.7¢. This month Manitoba is the single biggest riser, up 9.3¢— both Winnipeg gas bars added exactly 10¢ — and Alberta, June's other star, ticked up too. Even W Edmonton, June's cheapest pump in the nation at 137.9¢, is back up 9¢ to 146.9¢. The Prairies overshot on the way down and have simply mean-reverted. Meanwhile British Columbia, which barely moved in June, did July's falling: down 8.6¢, led by Courtenay's 18¢ cut — the biggest station move in the country.

Biggest 30-day movers by province-average price of regular at Costco, June 11 – July 10, 2026, beyond our noise threshold.

Every province, ranked by today's Costco average

The country's spread stays wide even as the Prairies bounce: 22.9¢ a litreseparates Alberta's 150.5¢ average from British Columbia's 173.4¢. At the station level, Red Deer, Alberta's 141.9¢ sits a full 43¢ below Langford, B.C., where regular still costs 184.9¢.

Province-average price of regular across tracked Costco gas bars, July 10, 2026, cheapest first. Newfoundland and Labrador has a single gas bar (St. John's). Costco has no fuel stations in Nova Scotia or P.E.I.

Why prices bottomed — and why they turned back up

Canadian pumps price off U.S. wholesale racks, so they ride the same crude wave as everyone else. After the United States and Israel went to war with Iran in late February and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz— the channel for roughly a fifth of the world's oil — the national average spiked to a 12-month high above 190¢. June and early July unwound most of that: the June 18 U.S.–Iran memorandum to reopen the strait sent crude tumbling, and oil kept sliding on hopes of peace until Brent fell below US$70 on July 1. That is the leg down to the June 20 trough.

The climb back is the mirror image. With the ceasefire looking shaky in early July, crude rebounded into the low $70s — and because the Prairies price directly off the Minneapolis rack and B.C. off Seattle, that turn reached Canadian pumps within days. There is also a 10-cent thumb still on the scale: Ottawa's suspension of the 10¢/L federal excise tax on gasoline (4¢/L on diesel), which runs from April 20 through September 7, remains in force. Today's 158.3¢ is what pumps look like with that holiday; the full rate snaps back on September 8, which will add a dime to every fill-up overnight unless Ottawa extends it.

Alberta has a second lever. The province's fuel tax is indexed to oil prices and reviewed quarterly: when WTI averages US$90 or more over the review window the 13¢/L tax is suspended entirely, with partial relief between $80 and $90. Because crude ran in the $80s and $90s through the review period before the July 1 adjustment, Albertans carried into the summer at the low end of the national table — but with the peace deal now pulling oil back down, the next review in mid-September could see some of that tax return just as the federal holiday ends.

How Costco compares across the country

Even after bouncing, Costco is still the cheapest way to fill up in most of the country. Its national average of 158.3¢ sits 8.1¢ below CAA's 166.4¢ all-station average for the same day, per CAA's national tracker on July 10— almost exactly the 8.5¢ gap we measured in June, which tells you the club discount held steady right through the bottom and the bounce. In the Prairies and Ontario, where Costco's averages run in the low 150s against provincial pump prices well into the 160s, the gap at the individual warehouse is wider still.

Will gas prices keep rising?

The near-term direction is set by the strait. The EIA's July outlookassumes Hormuz shipping keeps recovering toward pre-war volumes into 2027, which would pull the U.S. racks — and Canadian pumps with them — gradually lower again; but the same report flags that renewed disruption would reverse that fast, and the early-July rebound shows how little it takes. Layer on the two fixed Canadian dates — Alberta's mid-September tax review and the September 8 end of the federal excise holiday, which alone adds 10¢/L — and the risk into autumn is tilted toward higher pump prices even if crude behaves. British Columbia stays the outlier at the top: Costco's 173.4¢ B.C. average is the highest we track, which also makes the club discount biggest there.

Costco pump prices are a snapshot observed July 10, 2026 and will differ at the pump today. This site is independent and not affiliated with Costco Wholesale Corporation.